Could This Be The Bottom?

Despite getting caught in the cross hairs of the mortgage and credit debacle of September new homes sales were up month over month. Sales in the west were up a remarkable 38% in September. Since the west led this housing recesssion, possibly it will soon lead the U.S. out...............

excerpts from WSJ

New-Home Sales Rose Last Month,But August Drop Revised Lower

........Overall, the median price of a new home increased by 5.0% to $238,000 in September, compared with September 2006. But the average price declined by 2.8% to $288,000 from a year earlier.

The ratio of new houses for sale to houses sold, an indicator of supply, fell during September, going to 8.3 from 9.0 in August. There were an estimated 523,000 homes for sale at the end of September, down from August's 531,000.

Regionally last month, new-home sales increased 37.7% in the West and 0.5% in the South. Sales decreased 6.6% in the Northeast and 19.5% in the Midwest.

By ELIZABETH PRICE - WSJ

Housing Slump Over

Another Clip From Businessweek - Economic Outlook


U.S.: Is The Housing Recession Starting To Recede?
The drag on economic growth is easing, and home demand is firming up

It's still way too early to celebrate, but more and more signs suggest the housing recession is starting to ease its grip on the economy........

......Over the past three quarters the residential-construction segment of real gross domestic product has robbed 1 to 1.2 percentage points per quarter from the economy's annualized growth rate. Clearly, reports on housing remain mixed, but many economists are encouraged by key trends in housing starts, new-home sales, mortgage applications, and other indicators. Some analysts even think the second-quarter drag will be half that of recent quarters.....

.......Sales of new homes soared 16.2% in April, the largest monthly gain in 14 years, reaching an annual rate of 981,000......

....One bit of corroborating evidence that demand has stopped falling is the trend in weekly mortgage applications to buy a home, which has been on the rise since February. Through May 25, the four-week average of new filings was at its highest level since early 2006, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Assn.

ALSO, IT APPEARS the subprime loan debacle is not causing a broader restriction on credit that would depress home sales to prime borrowers. Subprime mortgages are almost exclusively adjustable-rate loans, for which applications are down sharply over the past year. However, new paperwork for fixed-rate mortgages is up 40% from a year ago. .......


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Mortgage Defaults Less in California Than Rest of U.S

So much for the wrath of defaults allegedly flooding California. Another urban legend. California borrowers are some of the most sound in the U.S. ............

"A rising number of Americans fell behind on mortgage payments during the third quarter of 2006, but California homeowners continued to fare better than most of the nation, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday.

The MBA reported that 2.68 percent of California's 5.5 million mortgage holders were at least 30 days late on their house payments during July, August and September.
That compared to a national delinquency rate of 4.67 percent among 42.6 million home loan borrowers.

Just seven states - Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota - had lower delinquency rates for all loans than California, according to the MBA's quarterly survey of delinquencies."

By Jim Wasserman - Sac Bee Staff Writer